- It was as if nature had a message for the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just before he began his Nepal visit earlier this week. The massive landslide in Sindhupalchok—which claimed many lives and property and threatened downstream human settlements as far as Bihar—was indeed a stark reminder that development and disaster can be a double-edged sword.
Not something unique
This is not to jump to the conclusion that the landslide was a result of rampant infrastructure development nor can we yet point fingers to extreme weather conditions. Seismic activities in the region make the picture even more complicated.
But this is also not something unique that has happened in the Hindu Kush Himalayan belt in recent years. What happened in the Hunja Valley of Pakistan in 2010, in India’s Uttarakhand last year, in Badakshan of Afghanistan in May and now in Nepal have something in common, although not all of them blocked river-flow. The intensity of the landslide—an entire chunk of a mountain along with rocks and big boulders coming down—has been the similarity.
Such disasters, which immediately claim lives and property in human settlements just below the mountains, are already tragic tales. They get far worse when they block rivers. A Damocles sword hangs over downstream populations and huge infrastructures. Disasters can strike at any time without warning. Remember how over 60 people were swept away by the flashflood in the Seti river in Kaski district two years ago?
Along the Pokhara-Baglung Highway, abandoned modern houses are still perched precariously on a cliff fast being eaten-up by the river below after it changed course since the disaster.
Landslide Dam Outburst Flood (LDOF) is an increasing risk in the region, although it may have received far less publicity than Glacial Lake Outburst Floods. Rapidly filling up glacial lakes due to the intensified meltdown of glaciers do pose threats; they can burst out their moraines. But they are not happening as frequently as landslides, although many such lakes in the Himalayan region remain unmonitored.
But that almost all Himalayan rivers in Nepal flow through gorges and valleys is a basic fact. Which means, they all are prone to landslide blockades. And if they cause major flashfloods, the repercussions will be felt as far as Bangladesh, let alone Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India.
Mapping out basins
This time, Sunkoshi has been rather calm; it formed a lake following the landslide at Mankha in Sindupalchouk and then began to overflow the rock-soil dam. As of the time of writing, efforts were under way to increase the outflow to drain the lake.
But not all landslide-induced dams are so benign and flashfloods from them so slow that they provide time to communicate with Indian authorities and evacuate people downstream, as they did in nine districts of Bihar this time.
So, what needs to be done then? Mapping all the river basins with regards to landslide risks is crucial, particularly those that have human settlements and major infrastructures like roads, bridges, hydropower plants, among others, downstream. With one whole village buried under the landslide and five hydropower plants or transmission lines hit by the dammed Sunkosi water, what more lessons do we need?
The panic in Bihar is no less a lesson for the Indian side as well.
Moreover, now that the two sides have spelled out the development of specific hydropower projects in the joint press statement following Indian Prime Minister Modi’s Nepal visit, this homework becomes even more crucial. “The two Prime Ministers directed the concerned authorities to conclude negotiations within 45 days on the Project Development Agreement.....for the development of Upper Karnali hydropower project,” the statement read. “They expressed desire for early conclusion of other PDAs namely Arun III, Upper Marshyangdi and Tamakoshi III.”
According to the statement, “the two prime ministers agreed that their governments would set up the Pancheswor Development Authority within six months and finalise the DPR of Pancheswor Development Project and begin implementation of the project within one year.”
If all these projects are really moving ahead, their LDOF risks need to be assessed at the earliest. As the host nation, it is of course for Nepal to do the job—as it has done with water resources. In doing so, if it needs any help, India should be forthcoming as it will be doing so for its own safety.
The southern neighbour’s national action plan on climate change says: Since several other countries in the South Asia region share the Himalayan ecosystem, appropriate forms of scientific collaboration and exchange of information may be considered with them to enhance understanding of ecosystem changes and their effects. Even for India’s internal purpose, the document reads, “Adopt ‘best practice’ norms for infrastructure construction in mountain regions to avoid or minimise damage to sensitive ecosystems and despoiling of landscapes.”
If that is true for India’s own mountain regions, it is also true for Nepal’s because the rivers that flow through it contribute around 70 percent of the flow of the Ganges during lean season. So, should something go wrong in the Nepali river systems, downstream India will have to worry.
Working together
Although Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have long been concerned about floods ‘from Nepal’ mainly during the monsoon, the LDOF risks do not seem to have attracted their attention. Perhaps that was why in his ‘everything included’ speech, Modi did not mention this particular issue, even as he offered his condolences to those who died in the Sindhupalchok landslide.
But now, when he tries to—if he does, that is—implement what he has assured Nepal of, his administration will have to seriously consider landslides’ threat to river systems upstream. If the Sunkoshi disaster was not enough an alarm call, last year’s Uttarakhand floods should surely be. Thousands of people, their houses and infrastructures, including hydropower plants, were swept away while Nepal’s Darchula district also saw huge human and property losses.
In this case, India was upstream and Nepal was, to some extent, a downstream country. In the rest of the major river-systems, it is the other way round and India cannot afford to ignore that.
